Slides are now available from our November seminar: Forecasting for competitors and regulators
Forecasting for competitors and regulators
Presented by Kesten Green and Matt Burgess
Dr Kesten Green will describe research findings that can help competitors and regulators make better forecasts and decisions. He will present evidence from his own research on how best to forecast the decisions people will make in conflict situations such as business competition and regulation, and mergers and acquisitions, and will briefly describe the use of evidence-based forecasting principles to audit policy proposals such as bail-outs, emissions trading schemes and listing polar bears as an endangered species.
Matt Burgess will discuss the use of prediction markets for forecasting. Prediction markets have been around for at least a century, but are not used as much as they should be. Matt will present evidence on the performance of prediction markets and explain why they provide better forecasts of innovation hit rates, political candidate success and flu outbreaks than more conventional techniques.
* * *
Kesten Green is a Senior Research Fellow of the Business and Economic Forecasting Unit at Monash University and is Managing Director of Decision Research Ltd. He conducts research and consults on forecasting. Kesten developed an early interest in forecasting as a founder of Infometrics Ltd. He has developed two new forecasting methods, structured analogies and simulated interactions, for forecasting decisions in conflict situations. He has published in the International Journal of Forecasting and received the International Institute of Forecasters Best Paper Award. Kesten's research has been covered in Science, Wall Street Journal, The New Yorker and Financial Times. Recent consulting clients include the Alaska Department of Natural Resources and the U.S. Department of Defence.
Matt Burgess is the Chief Executive of iPredict, a prediction market owned by Victoria University and the Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation (ISCR). He is a Research Associate at ISCR, founder of review site mytradesman.co.nz and formerly a consultant at CRA International.
If you would like to attend this seminar please contact: kathy.mckenzie@vuw.ac.nz Phone Number: (04) 463-5562
If you would like to unsubscribe from our mailing list, please email kathy.mckenzie@vuw.ac.nz with the word "unsubscribe" in the subject line.
To update your details or to add a colleague to our mailing list, please contact kathy.mckenzie@vuw.ac.nz